Transport reform as politics. UTODA’s tenure ends but what next?

Somewhere in my collection of odd papers, reports, tips from sources over the years are the incorporation papers of Uganda Taxi Operators and Drivers Association (UTODA).  As a private company UTODA pulled off a masquerade of a “public service” or even official government agency and must be congratulated for the feat. Most people did not know or assumed that UTODA was a government mandated service and mistook its “self-regulation” as a body of rules resident in some law somewhere beyond the Companies Act.

In only rare episodes has public transportation in Uganda come to a complete stop. UTODA’s success is indeed a lesson on the contours of policy making in country’s like Uganda or rather the political economy of this subject.

It certainly appears as if the National Resistance Movement waited until the transport sector is maturing to seek to administer it directly. Before then UTODA appears to have acted as its proxy in return for some have suggested for political support. The outsourcing of parts of public transport UTODA controlled was just part of the story however.

If you imagine security and public transport as government mandated services,  UTODA is the equivalent of  if the Uganda police were a largely private security outfit – like KK Security or Pinacle ( one must say though that security for residences and businesses is mostly paid for by individuals and at about 30,000 men and women, private security is indeed a huge ‘subsidy” that the government enjoys or a service that has also been privatized and outsourced).

Yes there has been the occasional strike when UTODA pulled rank over its political backers on issues like fuel prices or fare rises but overall the underwhelming-ly average quality of its service continued uninterrupted. As the company is being edged out of its main business – collecting dues from taxi drivers and owners – many wonder rightly what the future of public transport itself will be and what new deal the NRM will cut with the city’s poor.

UTODA’s  constituency being largely poor, urban young men (originally ganda and predominantly Muslim) was its genius and crucial bargaining chip. Perhaps the height of UTODA’s double identity as a business and quasi-political organization came in 2007 when during the Commonwealth Summit its members doubled as volunteer security militia. The company offered this extra service to the state.

Specially trained “commandos” would man parks and travel in taxi’s to watch over passengers and intervene in case of trouble. This the main investment in security was eyes and ears- UTODA became a mainstay of the security plan for Commonwealth delegates.

I had dinner with a senior member of the President Yoweri Museveni’s staff as part of the investigation into UTODA at one of Kampala’s upscale restaurants earlier that year; itself a sign of how high the group’s influence spread.

“ Some of our members have long protected UTODA as a bargain struck during the initial takeover of Kampala when Baganda Muslims asked to be allowed to handle transport” said my source, a well-heeled politico who like successful NRM cadres owned property including interests in the transport sector.

He explained that their Baganda/Muslim lobby  argued that their group were “not educated” and could therefore compete in the new political dispensation like other participants in NRM’s triumph. This was accepted, the source said, and the political bargain continued to have currency for a long time.

If this was true what became of UTODA over time was not just a source of employment for a growing urban underclass. The identity of  poor urban youth has changed across time but the company was a cash cow for those who made and supported the bargain that kept the company in business. One of the figures rumors associate with UTODA’s political support is NRM Vice Chair Al Haj Moses Kigongo, for example, a wealthy businessman in his own right whose wife Olive Kigongo is the long reigning head of the Uganda Chamber of Commerce.

At its height UTODA controlled billions in revenue and paid a fraction in official taxes. It managed to get away with it by  leveraging its political muscle in its agreements with the Kampala City Council (which is now Kampala Capital City Authority) which while run initially by what UTODA’s NRM friends considered “ oppositionist” forces ( Democratic Party but Buganda networks) was empathetic to UTODA. In any event the City Council was a hotbed of corruption itself. One of the most memorable stories of my career was on graft in the city and how government loans and grants would simply disappear into the bellies of its fat cats. KCC graft

That government officials, city officials, ministers, clerks and everyone in between was on the take had long been alleged but the network was never clear and perhaps a failure for the journalism that failed to unveil it.

To its credit while UTODA remained a huge tax evasion exercise it never descended to criminal depths like similar networks elsewhere on the continent. In nearby Kenya, the capture of public transportation by “tribal” militia like Munguki and other criminal networks created a violent mafia economy,which became a major liability during the political transition crisis there. Mugiki and associated groups too had political connections but appeared at points to direct itself. UTODA’s passivity in contrast is evidence of the nature of its relationship to politics and government. This bears comment. At points when Uganda faced urban terrorism, security agencies were able to draw from its reach amongst specific communities. Despite the lack of regulation of the transport sector and the vast enterprise that UTODA controlled Kampala maintained a reputation as a largely safe city. This even if the potential has existed for criminal networks to thrive – like in 2002 when violent robberies of forex bureaus and banks and car theft threatened to bring the city to its knees. Such This relationship is now at risk with the shifting tide of city politics and its something to keep in mind.

However this arrangement had its limits set. As the demands on public transport grew so did UTODA’s value proposition. And when the government sought to reform the city administration it seemed UTODA’s days were numbered.

First to ebb away was its influence. I always felt that since entry and exit into the taxi business was pretty free that UTODA could not control its “members” for long. As the axis of ownership diversified from the initial base- as did the political argument. Some its most vocal critics have been internal and it was over UTODA’s management style and not its political bargain. This is a sensitive subject because of the tribalism at the center of the transport business so we will leave it at that.

As KCCA takes over UTODA as a public transportation issue remains a major policy challenge. To approach the transport business simply as a source of city funds is very narrow and will likely lead to friction. Transport as a service needs radical reform and that is what UTODA pushed back for years. KCCA needs to return focus on regulation and enforce its charter by investing in rules that direct private investment in the transport sector in ways that rationalize and regularize the transport experience. If KCCA ( run by Jennifer Musisi above) remains a collector of fees it is also at the risk of political capture though some would argue that this has already happened.

At stake is not just the predictability of fares, routes, health services like toilets etc but also the exit of taxi’s and return of bus transport to Kampala. Eventually boda bodas and their associations will pose a similar challenge but the UTODA experience should show that reform may take time but it’s not impossible.

Here is my 2007 story on the UTODA mystery. UTODA

“NRM supports UTODA reform” as load shedding improves

So the day is done and I have two shows to report here apart from everything else that is happening. Some things will have to wait. First the show we had with the Electricity Regulatory Authority folks (14/07/2011)

Benon Mutambi, former director economic planning now Acting Chief Executive Officer is the top honcho there. He was joined by Engineer Semitala Norbert (Technical Regulation). The show made some interesting revelations. Energy Status Statement

Like I reported here before Aggreko contract (the diesel run energy producer contracted several years ago as an emergency power facility) is drawing to a close on the back of high oil prices and a government deficit.

In 2010 Uganda paid 280 billion to Aggreko. It’s the most expensive power in the country’s history. The company produces 20% of the energy Uganda consumes but receives 60% of total energy dollars (my research). I have asked ERA for a full cost report but am yet to receive the final tally.

To deal with the shortfall ERA asked the Directorate of Water Development (DWD), a sort of regulator for the water sector to increase the controlled releases at the source of the Nile. It’ s literally pouring cold water on the fires of the energy shortfall. There is talk that manufacturers were planning industrial action to protest the load shedding.

The result is that while Aggreko shuts down one of its 50MW facility (which resulted in load shedding) the shortfall will now be met by some 40 MW produced by the Nalubaale hydro-power stations at the Nile.

The increase granted by DWD is to release 200 more cubic meters by second of water. It raises the water releases at the cusp of the Nile by Lake Victoria in Jinja to 1000 cubic meters per second. That is the price that Uganda has to pay.

Hydropower is cheaper so ideally the decline of expensive thermal in favor of hydro is good for the energy mix. Mutambi promised that load shedding would end by this Christmas when Bujagali Hydro Power Dam comes online. Testing will take until March when it is commissioned so my own prediction is March if only because there are always technical issues to expect.

The problem with Uganda’s energy sector of course is management. The planners in the sector have failed to balance the energy mix by ensuring cheaper sources dominate (like hydro or Heavy Fuel Oils). Instead Aggreko ensured very high costs from light diesel and with the rising oil prices it became unsustainable causing the current crisis.

In the meantime I had some suggestions for the ERA folks including taking Uganda’s massive subsidy (the result of buying down the tariff of expensively procured energy) and directing it at rationalizing the power grid. Close to 30% or more of the power produced is either stolen or lost to an obsolete grid. Rehabilitating the grid means relief or if you like harvesting where there were losses. The other is to focus Uganda’s petroleum program on HFO products.

Focusing on recovering from losses instead of longer-term investments in new infrastructure is particularly pertinent in Kampala, which provides more than half of the 450 thousand customers of Umeme – the electricity distributor. According to Umeme some of the fastest growing areas for new customers are also outside Kampala (in Banda and Najjanamkumbi, a new substation is being set up in Lubowa to cater for the new customer base).

All this may be mumbo-jumbo for those just joining this conversation but it is pretty serious stuff. Uganda has the highest energy costs in the region, which perhaps may explain why industry here is stunted. Uganda relies mainly on trade for taxes. It has an import bill of 4.5 billion dollars meanwhile largely raw exports bring in a measly 1.5 billion in export earnings. Some call this an import bias- but not surprisingly new investments likely take into account the high cost of electricity in the country.

Why open a processing plant instead of a hotel or disco? One requires an assurance of electricity.

MEANWHILE we had the new Executive Director of Kampala Jennifer Semakula Musisi. A very interesting conversation. For starters she said off air that she had spoken directly to the highest political authorities about one of the major headaches of the city; its transportation system currently run by UTODA. The position of those higher ups (who won’t be named here) was to insist on reforms of the city’s transport system. Being that UTODA is viewed wrongly as a government body or an extension of the ruling party- this is a very interesting path.

May UTODA as we know it be on its way out? She is determined as well to kick out the cordinator of intelligence Gen David Tinyefuza from a city owned mansion. She already kicked out the former Mayor Al Haj Nasser Ssebagala. More on Jennifer’s story next round.

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